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Forecasting betting matchups and point spreads among NCAA Tournament top seeds
written March 10, 2010 by Jeff Haney
Forecasting betting matchups and point spreads among NCAA Tournament top seeds
The four teams most likely to receive No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are separated by no more than 3 points in the betting line, according to odds recently released in Las Vegas.
Oddsmakers with Lucky's sports books have posted point spreads, available for wagering now, on six potential matchups involving the consensus top four teams in the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tourney.
The betting lines on the projected matchups range from pick 'em to 3 points, an indication the tournament's top teams are bunched fairly close to each other from a gambler's perspective, with no single team head and shoulders above the field.
For bets to have action, the matchup in question must occur during the tournament, which begins next week with an opening-round game Tuesday and concludes with the Final Four set for April 3 and 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The point spreads listed here are based on opening lines in the proposition and, as always, are subject to change.
1. Kansas minus 1 point vs. Syracuse:
The Jayhawks, with a record of 29-2 straight-up and 12-15-1 against the point spread, are ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll and the ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll. They received 63 of the 65 first-place votes in the AP poll and 30 of 31 first-place votes in the coaches' poll. After finishing atop the Big 12 standings, Kansas is poised to secure the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the field and seedings are announced Sunday.
Syracuse, which received the other first-place vote in the coaches' poll, is ranked No. 3 in both polls after a short stay at No. 1. The Orange (28-3 straight-up, 19-8 against the spread) was knocked from the top spot -- its first appearance at No. 1 during the regular season since 1990 -- after losing at Louisville, 78-68, as a 1-point favorite.
Both teams are favored to win their conference tournament. Syracuse opened at odds of 17-10 to win the Big East tournament according to Lucky's sports books odds, ahead of West Virginia (3-1), Villanova (4-1) and Pittsburgh (5-1). Kansas opened as a 1-3 favorite to win the Big 12 tournament, according to odds at the M Resort sports book in Las Vegas. Its closest competitors are Kansas State (7-2 at the M), Baylor (5-1) and Texas (6-1).
2. Kansas minus 2 points vs. Kentucky:
Kansas, coming off consecutive impressive victories in which they covered the spread with room to spare against Kansas State and Missouri, is favored by 2 against Kentucky, according to Lucky's oddsmakers.
Kentucky (29-2 straight-up, 16-13 ATS), which earned the other two first-place votes in the AP poll, is coming off a victory against Florida in which it failed to cover an 8-point spread. Kentucky, ranked second in the polls, also spent time at No. 1 earlier this season.
3. Kansas minus 3 points vs. Duke:
Most projections have Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse as heavy favorites to earn No. 1 seeds in the tournament, with the fourth relatively undecided. Duke (26-5 SU, 18-10-2 ATS) made its case with a convincing 82-50 victory against North Carolina in which the Blue Devils went off as a 15-point favorite. Duke is ranked No. 4 in both major polls.
4. Syracuse minus 3 points vs. Duke:
The Blue Devils were also installed as a 3-point 'dog against Syracuse, perhaps indicating the Orange sits closer to the overall No. 1 spot than its rivals in this proposition with Duke closer to a No. 2 seed. Even so, the Dukies opened as a heavy favorite to win the ACC tournament at odds of 5-8, followed by Florida at 5-2, Florida State at 5-1 and Virginia Tech at 8-1, according to M Resort odds.
5. Kentucky minus 1 point vs. Duke:
Kentucky opened as a big favorite to win the Southeastern Conference tournament at odds of 1-3 at the M, followed by Vanderbilt at 4-1, Tennessee at 5-1 and Mississippi at 8-1.
6. Kentucky pick 'em vs. Syracuse:
The Wildcats have been an underdog only once this season, going off as a 1-point 'dog against Connecticut. The Orange was a small underdog at Georgetown and West Virginia and, early on, against North Carolina.
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The four teams most likely to receive No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are separated by no more than 3 points in the betting line, according to odds recently released in Las Vegas.
Oddsmakers with Lucky's sports books have posted point spreads, available for wagering now, on six potential matchups involving the consensus top four teams in the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tourney.
The betting lines on the projected matchups range from pick 'em to 3 points, an indication the tournament's top teams are bunched fairly close to each other from a gambler's perspective, with no single team head and shoulders above the field.
For bets to have action, the matchup in question must occur during the tournament, which begins next week with an opening-round game Tuesday and concludes with the Final Four set for April 3 and 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The point spreads listed here are based on opening lines in the proposition and, as always, are subject to change.
1. Kansas minus 1 point vs. Syracuse:
The Jayhawks, with a record of 29-2 straight-up and 12-15-1 against the point spread, are ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll and the ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll. They received 63 of the 65 first-place votes in the AP poll and 30 of 31 first-place votes in the coaches' poll. After finishing atop the Big 12 standings, Kansas is poised to secure the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the field and seedings are announced Sunday.
Syracuse, which received the other first-place vote in the coaches' poll, is ranked No. 3 in both polls after a short stay at No. 1. The Orange (28-3 straight-up, 19-8 against the spread) was knocked from the top spot -- its first appearance at No. 1 during the regular season since 1990 -- after losing at Louisville, 78-68, as a 1-point favorite.
Both teams are favored to win their conference tournament. Syracuse opened at odds of 17-10 to win the Big East tournament according to Lucky's sports books odds, ahead of West Virginia (3-1), Villanova (4-1) and Pittsburgh (5-1). Kansas opened as a 1-3 favorite to win the Big 12 tournament, according to odds at the M Resort sports book in Las Vegas. Its closest competitors are Kansas State (7-2 at the M), Baylor (5-1) and Texas (6-1).
2. Kansas minus 2 points vs. Kentucky:
Kansas, coming off consecutive impressive victories in which they covered the spread with room to spare against Kansas State and Missouri, is favored by 2 against Kentucky, according to Lucky's oddsmakers.
Kentucky (29-2 straight-up, 16-13 ATS), which earned the other two first-place votes in the AP poll, is coming off a victory against Florida in which it failed to cover an 8-point spread. Kentucky, ranked second in the polls, also spent time at No. 1 earlier this season.
3. Kansas minus 3 points vs. Duke:
Most projections have Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse as heavy favorites to earn No. 1 seeds in the tournament, with the fourth relatively undecided. Duke (26-5 SU, 18-10-2 ATS) made its case with a convincing 82-50 victory against North Carolina in which the Blue Devils went off as a 15-point favorite. Duke is ranked No. 4 in both major polls.
4. Syracuse minus 3 points vs. Duke:
The Blue Devils were also installed as a 3-point 'dog against Syracuse, perhaps indicating the Orange sits closer to the overall No. 1 spot than its rivals in this proposition with Duke closer to a No. 2 seed. Even so, the Dukies opened as a heavy favorite to win the ACC tournament at odds of 5-8, followed by Florida at 5-2, Florida State at 5-1 and Virginia Tech at 8-1, according to M Resort odds.
5. Kentucky minus 1 point vs. Duke:
Kentucky opened as a big favorite to win the Southeastern Conference tournament at odds of 1-3 at the M, followed by Vanderbilt at 4-1, Tennessee at 5-1 and Mississippi at 8-1.
6. Kentucky pick 'em vs. Syracuse:
The Wildcats have been an underdog only once this season, going off as a 1-point 'dog against Connecticut. The Orange was a small underdog at Georgetown and West Virginia and, early on, against North Carolina.
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